Report
Residential Sales
2016
Total Transaction Value
123
Primary transactions (developer under construction) valued at:
AED 234 Bn
23
Secondary ready units transacted at:
AED 45 Bn
45
Secondary under construction transactions valued at:
AED 435 Bn
Year-on-Year Market Evolution: Narrative vs Reality
Dubai Population Growth (2017 – 2026)
Residential Transaction Value (Total Transactions Shown Below)
Dubai Population vs Residential Transactions (2017-2026)
| YEAR | POPULATION | POPULATION Y/Y | NET POPULATION ADDITION | RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTION VALUE (AED BN) | TRANSACTION VALUE Y-O-Y | OFF-PLAN TRANSACTIONS | READY TRANSACTIONS | TOTAL TRANSACTIONS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 34 | - | 0 | 35 | - | 56 | 44 | 100 |
| 2018 | 35 | 2.9% | 1 | 38 | 8.6% | 56 | 43 | 99 |
| 2019 | 36 | 2.9% | 1 | 49 | 28.9% | 56 | 4 | 60 |
| 2020 | 37 | 2.8% | 1 | 56 | 14.3% | 6 | 445 | 451 |
| 2021 | 38 | 2.7% | 1 | 59 | 5.4% | 4 | 345 | 349 |
| 2022 | 39 | 2.6% | 1 | 67 | 13.6% | 45 | 45 | 90 |
| 2023 | 40 | 2.6% | 1 | 69 | 3% | 45 | 54 | 99 |
| 2024 | 41 | 2.5% | 1 | 78 | 13% | 3 | 45 | 48 |
| 2025 | 42 | 2.4% | 1 | 80 | 2.6% | 24 | 54 | 78 |
| 2026 | 43 | 2.4% | 1 | 89 | 11.3% | 4 | 54 | 58 |
Population Growth: Consistent and Resilient
Key Insight:
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Residential Transactions: Capital Growth Far Outpacing Population
Key Insight:
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Top 5 developers share of Dubai residential transaction value (2016)
| DEVELOPER | PRIMARY (AED BN) | SECONDARY - OFF PLAN | SECONDARY - READY (AED BN) | TOTAL TRANSACTION VALUE | % SHARE WITHIN TOP 5 DEVELOPERS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Al SAQR DEVELOPERS | 45 | 45 | 4,543 | 4,633 | 100% |
Capital is concentrated:
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Emaar anchors the market:
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Pricing power is uneven:
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2025 is conviction-led:
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2016 Transaction Value:
Apartment vs Villa
Price based segmentation: Apartments
Dubai apartment market 2016 – Segmentation by price
| Segment | Price Range (AED MN) | 2016 Value (AED BN) | Share of 2016 Value (%) | Market Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable | <1M | 4 | 20% | test |
| Mid-Market | 1M – 2M | 4 | 20% | test |
| Upper Mid-Market | 2M – 5M | 4 | 20% | test |
| Luxury | 5M – 12M | 4 | 20% | test |
| Ultra-Luxury | >12M | 4 | 20% | test |
Dubai Apartment Market 2016 – Transaction Value by Price Segment
The apartment market is anchored in the AED 1M–5M band:
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Affordable housing plays a supporting role, not a driver:
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Luxury and ultra-luxury remain selective, not speculative:
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Price based segmentation:
Villas
Dubai villa market 2016 – Segmentation by price
| Segment | Price Range (AED MN) | 2016 Value (AED BN) | Share of 2016 Value (%) | Market Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable & Mid-Market | <1M – 2M | 33 | 4.5% | tesr |
| Upper Mid-Market | 2M – 5M | 33 | 4.5% | test |
| Luxury | 5M – 12M | 333 | 45.5% | test |
| Ultra-Luxury | >12M | 333 | 45.5% | test |
Dubai Villa Market 2016 – Transaction Value by Price Segment
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Key takeaway:
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2015 vs 2016
Year-on-Year Comparison (vs 2015)
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total transactions | 23 | 324 | +1308.7% |
| Total sales value (AED Bn) | 342 | 43 | -87.4% |
| Average price per sqft | 34 | 34 | 0% |
| No. of Off-plan transactions | 34 | 34 | 0% |
| No. of ready transactions | 34 | 3 | -91.2% |
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Month on Month trend
Dubai Residential Market: Transactions & Value (Jan–Dec 2016)
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Key Inferences & Conclusions
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Sources: Public government data (Dubai Pulse) & Licensed market data (REIDIN)
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